Here is a list of oil prices from the past year prior to a holiday shortened weekend. The prices reflected are the prior two trading days, so I could compute a price % change. (For example, if the holiday is on a Monday, I gathered data from the past Thursday and Friday). I do not take into account holidays that fall in the middle of the week.
| Date: | | P1 | % Change |
| 8/30-8/31 | $73.36 | $74.04 | 0.93% |
| | | | |
| 1/17-1/18 | $90.13 | $90.57 | 0.49% |
| | | | |
| 2/14-2/15 | $95.46 | $95.50 | 0.04% |
| | | | |
| 3/19-3/20 | $104.48 | $101.84 | -2.53% |
| | | | |
| 5/22-5/23 | $130.81 | $132.19 | 1.05% |
As you can see, there really is no sufficient data to go by to make a serious projection or conclusion on the effect of a holiday weekend on price or sentiment. I did not even post data from before Summer (2007) because it is all repetitive. There are conflicting price swings going into a long weekend, not always up and not always down. It annoys me a bit that often people make such a big deal about “traders not wanting to be short oil going into a long weekend.”
Point taken, but in this market, I would not want to be short oil any day. There are many things that can spring up at any time during the week: Geopolitical events, EIA Inventory data, natural disasters and policy changes just to name a few.
The prices reflect that- the rumored, likely, probable or even improbable events that could happen any given day. Yes, there is an increased chance of a market moving event if you throw in a weekend-plus-1. My point is: People are not short all week in this market just to buy back on a Friday to hedge.
I realize oil gets plenty of coverage, as it no question deserves. I just think these long weekends are a bit overrated in terms of traders' sentiment.
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